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New report: Clean energy will cover for increased electricity demand
First, some bad news: The power sector is currently producing more carbon emissions than any other in the global economy – and the increasing electricity demand is expected to speed up over the next few years.
Now the good news: The whole increase in electricity demand will be covered by clean energy sources – and emissions are going down.
After a brief period of slower increase, global electricity demand is expected to grow faster over the next three years. The fossil fuel lobby is eager to use this as an argument to expand fossil fuels. In its new Lights on Energy campaign, the American Petroleum Institute argues that as demand for energy is growing, ”so is demand for American gas and oil.”
Give Climate Warning ⚠️ to American Petroleum Institute: Bizarre campaign labels oil as safe energy source of the future | We Don't Have Time
The American Petroleum Institute (API) has just launched an eight figure ad campaign called ”Lights on Energy”. The campaign aims to ensure that oil and gas companies are allowed to burn and extract more oil and fossil gas for decades to come (but forgets to mention that this would slow down the green transition and make it impossible for the world to limit global warming to a manageable level). So, how do you sell such destructiveness to policy-makers and voters? Easy. You label the problem as a solution. Not only does the campaign claim that ”oil and natural gas are vital to our energy future.” It also argues that NOT investing heavily in fossil energy – the major cause of the climate crisis – will ”put America's future at risk”. (Most scientists would argue it's the other way around.) But hang on, it gets even weirder: Contrary to all science, the campaign finally argues that U.S. fossil gas and oil ”can play a key role in supplying the world with cleaner energy.” The whole campaign is based on the false assumption that oil and fossil gas are needed to meet the world's growing energy needs. Well, guess what? It’s not. Despite the horrendous billion-dollar subsidies paid out to the oil, coal, and gas companies, renewables are now the cheapest form of energy in most parts of the world, even in the US. And the costs of installing new wind and solar plants keep dropping. This, of course, is the reason why the fossil fuel industry is spending so much on this utterly bizarre campaign. It is an industry in a state of panic. At COP28 in Dubai, all 200 nations signed an agreement that the world needs to transition away from all fossil fuels. More and more companies, investors, industry sectors and even governments are turning their back on oil, coal and gas. Add to that the cost of premature deaths and health problems related to the burning of fossil fuels, and you have more arguments than you need to swiftly leave the era of fossil fuels behind ASAP. The American Petroleum Institute is short-sighted, greedy, and disconnected from science and reality. It deserves nothing but a BIG Climate Warning! What do you think about the campaign? Learn more about it here: https://lightsonenergy.com
https://app.wedonthavetime.org/posts/0e876521-91aa-4598-9685-5f21566b0f61
But that’s not true. According to the new ”Electricity 2024” report by the IEA, record-breaking electricity generation from renewables and nuclear power is set to cover all of the world’s electricity demand over the next three years.
Already next year, in 2025, renewables are expected to make up more than one-third of total electricity generation, thereby overtaking coal. In the same year, fossil fuels are expected to reach an all-time low, accounting for less than 60% of the global electricity generation.
“The power sector currently produces more CO2 emissions than any other in the world economy, so it’s encouraging that the rapid growth of renewables and a steady expansion of nuclear power are together on course to match all the increase in global electricity demand over the next three years. This is largely thanks to the huge momentum behind renewables, with ever cheaper solar leading the way,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement at the release of the report.
This shift is also creating loads of new jobs. Clean-energy sectors – such as low-carbon power, grids, energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), and railways – contributed 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to China’s economy in 2023, according to a new analysis for Carbon Brief. This accounted for “all of the growth in Chinese investment and a larger share of economic growth than any other part of the economy”. This was driven, in particular, by the “new three” industries of solar power, EVs and batteries.
The rapid expansion of renewable energy sources is expected to meet all additional electricity demand in China. Photo by Denys Nevozhai on Unsplash
Here are some of the most interesting findings in the IEA report ”Electricity 2024”:
• The global growth in electricity demand is projected to accelerate to an average of 3.4% from 2024 through 2026.
• About 85% of this increase is expected to come from outside advanced economies – most notably China, India and Southeast Asian countries.
• Electricity consumption from data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and the cryptocurrency sector could double by 2026. If it happens, the electricity consumption of data centers alone will be roughly equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan.
• Despite this increase, the dependence on fossil fuel is expected to be reduced. As clean electricity supply continues to expand rapidly, the share of fossil fuels in global generation is forecast to decline from 61% in 2023 to 54% in 2026, falling below 60% for the first time in IEA records dating back to 1971.
• Low-emissions sources are expected to account for almost half of the world’s electricity generation by 2026, up from a share of just under 40% in 2023.
• Renewables are set to make up more than one-third of total electricity generation by early 2025, overtaking coal.
• Renewables are set to more than offset demand growth in advanced economies such as the United States and the European Union, displacing fossil-fired supply. In China, the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources is expected to meet all additional electricity demand. However, the weather and the extent to which the country’s demand growth eases remain key sources of uncertainty for the outlook.
• The strong expansion in renewable power capacity must also be accompanied by accelerated investment in grids and system flexibility to ensure its smooth integration.
• By 2025, nuclear power generation is forecast to reach an all-time high globally as output from France climbs, several plants in Japan come back online, and new reactors begin commercial operations in many markets, including in China, India, Korea and Europe.
• Global emissions from electricity generation are expected to decrease by 2.4% in 2024, followed by smaller declines in 2025 and 2026.
• Africa remains an outlier in electricity demand trends. While electricity use per capita in India and Southeast Asia has risen rapidly, it has been effectively stagnant in Africa for over three decades.
What is your view on these findings and predictions? Voice your opinion in the comments section below.
Read the full report:
Electricity 2024 – Analysis - IEA
Electricity 2024 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2024
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Information is power!
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We have come a long way already, but need to speed up to reach our new targets!!! The past years have shown an enormous growth in renewable energy production in Germany!!! You know, when we did start activities more than 30 years ago, nobody in our own utility companies took us seriously!!!! Now for a growing number of hours during the past year the renewable power generation has become the leading source of electricity production in Germany!!!
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@dr_dietrich_bartelt certainly. We need to accelerate green energy growth
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@dr_dietrich_bartelt I still think Germany should have waited some years to shut down the nuclear plants and not turn on the old coal power plants. If GHG reduction was in the core mission, that shouldn't have happened.
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This is exactly what I talked about in my #PopTheCork video last year. We are making much more progress than most people know about. See my 10 min video that will give you hope here: https://app.wedonthavetime.org/posts/407ecd3c-a522-4d47-a3b7-b0032d3ed409?utm_source=url-copy&utm_medium=wdht-web-app-share&utm_campaign=Rentzhog
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@Rentzhog as true as this is, fact remains we can do more and should definitely do more
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This shift away from fossil fuels and towards cleaner sources promises significant environmental benefits in terms of reduced CO2 emissions and air pollution.
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@george_kariuki hope is all we need to live and fight another day.
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@george_kariuki it reduces our carbon emissions greatly and this gradual change in energy sources hugely improved our climate
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This is a positive step towards reducing the significant carbon footprint of the global economy and addressing the impacts of climate change.
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@gorffly_mokua it is true that we can only reduce our carbon numbers by ensuring the most polluting sectors adopt green energy
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Clean energy is the major focus to save our planet.Nice piece
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@johnte_ndeto Agree! And we should direct our energy and resources towards it!
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@johnte_ndeto clean energy is the start pin our journey towards liberation of the planet. From fossil fuels to renewable energy
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Wow! Talk about exponential change. It’s just becoming more and more obvious that we have the solutions we need. We’re just lacking the political will. Hoping that will change in 2024.
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@simon_bergbom I completely agree that it's becoming more obvious that we have the solutions we need to address climate change.
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@simon_bergbom we have the resources and ability. What we lack is the right direction and willingness to make a change in our world
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Thank you very much Markus for this lengthy and informative article showing that the transition into renewable energy is going faster than the public awareness
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@Johannes_Luiga I agree.The public ( my self included) sometimes think that most of the time we take more steps backwards than foward.
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This is such an important report. My biggest fear though is that (as we've seen before), the fossil fuel industry have way more marketing and communication budgets than the IEA, which will likely mean that they will be able to continue with their narrative of "we need to increase fossil fuel production to match the energy demand". And this narrative will likely be the one that reaches the public opinion and the governments. Also, I'm wondering if the IEA in this report takes into account the distribution of this energy. Will it not be likely that the poorest countries and people will face a shortage of clean energy, as the richest ones will "keep it for themselves"?
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@marine_stephan Lets hope that the falling costs of clean electricity will make oil and coal fired power plants obsolete. I think thats the consensus, but of course fossil subsidies will keep dirty power in the grids for longer than we really afford.
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@marine_stephan the way to go around this hurdle is by diversification of funds and by ensuring all countries have the means of production to support production of renewable energy
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This is if and when we make the right moves in funding clean energy
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The claim that fossil fuels are necessary for prosperity is becoming more and more ridiculous.
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@Adam_Wallin these claims are only backed and come from fossil fuel financiers and people who benefit from such fuels
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@Adam_Wallin I'll be back https://run-3.pro