First, some bad news: The power sector is currently producing more carbon emissions than any other in the global economy – and the increasing electricity demand is expected to speed up over the next few years.
Now the good news: The whole increase in electricity demand will be covered by clean energy sources – and emissions are going down.
After a brief period of slower increase, global electricity demand is expected to grow faster over the next three years. The fossil fuel lobby is eager to use this as an argument to expand fossil fuels. In its new Lights on Energy campaign, the American Petroleum Institute argues that as demand for energy is growing, ”so is demand for American gas and oil.” https://app.wedonthavetime.org/posts/0e876521-91aa-4598-9685-5f21566b0f61
But that’s not true. According to the new ”Electricity 2024” report by the IEA, record-breaking electricity generation from renewables and nuclear power is set to cover all of the world’s electricity demand over the next three years.
Already next year, in 2025, renewables are expected to make up more than one-third of total electricity generation, thereby overtaking coal. In the same year, fossil fuels are expected to reach an all-time low, accounting for less than 60% of the global electricity generation.
“The power sector currently produces more CO2 emissions than any other in the world economy, so it’s encouraging that the rapid growth of renewables and a steady expansion of nuclear power are together on course to match all the increase in global electricity demand over the next three years. This is largely thanks to the huge momentum behind renewables, with ever cheaper solar leading the way,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement at the release of the report.
This shift is also creating loads of new jobs. Clean-energy sectors – such as low-carbon power, grids, energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), and railways – contributed 11.4tn yuan ($1.6tn) to China’s economy in 2023, according to a new analysis for Carbon Brief. This accounted for “all of the growth in Chinese investment and a larger share of economic growth than any other part of the economy”. This was driven, in particular, by the “new three” industries of solar power, EVs and batteries.
The rapid expansion of renewable energy sources is expected to meet all additional electricity demand in China. Photo by Denys Nevozhai on Unsplash
Here are some of the most interesting findings in the IEA report ”Electricity 2024”:
• The global growth in electricity demand is projected to accelerate to an average of 3.4% from 2024 through 2026.
• About 85% of this increase is expected to come from outside advanced economies – most notably China, India and Southeast Asian countries.
• Electricity consumption from data centres, artificial intelligence (AI) and the cryptocurrency sector could double by 2026. If it happens, the electricity consumption of data centers alone will be roughly equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan.
• Despite this increase, the dependence on fossil fuel is expected to be reduced. As clean electricity supply continues to expand rapidly, the share of fossil fuels in global generation is forecast to decline from 61% in 2023 to 54% in 2026, falling below 60% for the first time in IEA records dating back to 1971.
• Low-emissions sources are expected to account for almost half of the world’s electricity generation by 2026, up from a share of just under 40% in 2023.
• Renewables are set to make up more than one-third of total electricity generation by early 2025, overtaking coal.
• Renewables are set to more than offset demand growth in advanced economies such as the United States and the European Union, displacing fossil-fired supply. In China, the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources is expected to meet all additional electricity demand. However, the weather and the extent to which the country’s demand growth eases remain key sources of uncertainty for the outlook.
• The strong expansion in renewable power capacity must also be accompanied by accelerated investment in grids and system flexibility to ensure its smooth integration.
• By 2025, nuclear power generation is forecast to reach an all-time high globally as output from France climbs, several plants in Japan come back online, and new reactors begin commercial operations in many markets, including in China, India, Korea and Europe.
• Global emissions from electricity generation are expected to decrease by 2.4% in 2024, followed by smaller declines in 2025 and 2026.
• Africa remains an outlier in electricity demand trends. While electricity use per capita in India and Southeast Asia has risen rapidly, it has been effectively stagnant in Africa for over three decades.
What is your view on these findings and predictions? Voice your opinion in the comments section below.
Read the full report:
https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2024
