New study: Green spaces reduce crime rates in cities

Several studies have shown that higher temperatures increase the risk of violence. But no study has focused on what impact an urban heat island (UHI) or green space can have on the temperature–violence relationship.
Until now.
In the new study ”Associatons between violent crme insode and outside, air temperature, urban heat island magnitude and urban greeen space”, the authors show that a greater percentage of all vegetation is associated with significantly lower rates of violent crime committed outside. 
Greater temperature was non-linearly associated with higher rates of violent crime committed both inside and outside. The findings of this study are important because both violence and heat exposure are critical health issues and will be stressed by urbanization and climate change. Expanding green space and/or reducing UHI may mitigate these effects.
An earlier study, ”Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict,” has shown that global warming also increases the risk of war. For every half degree of warming, societies will see between a 10 and 20 percent increase in the likelihood of armed conflict, according to that study.
Photo by Nerea Martí Sesarino on Unsplash
﻿
Learn more and download the study: 
Associations between violent crime inside and outside, air temperature, urban heat island magnitude and urban green space - International Journal of Biometeorology
There are more incidents of violence in summer and on hot days, a trend likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Urban areas experience additional temperature modulation due to the urban form, however, to date, no studies have considered the effect of the urban heat island (UHI) or green space with respect to the temperature–violence relationship. This study modelled the relationship between the number of daily violent crime incidents that occurred inside or outside between July 2013 and June 2018, and the average surface UHI or percentage greencover (including grasses, shrubs and trees) within each local government area in Greater Sydney, Australia. Panelised negative binomial time series regression models indicated that the violent crime rate was associated with higher surface UHI for crimes committed outside (p = 0.006) but not inside (p = 0.072). Greater percentage of all vegetation was associated with significantly lower rates of violent crime committed outside (p = 0.011) but was not associated with violent crimes committed inside (p = 0.430). More socio-economic disadvantage was associated with higher rates of violent crime committed inside (p = 0.002) but not outside (p = 0.145). Greater temperature was non-linearly associated with higher rates of violent crime committed both inside and outside (p < 0.001). The findings of this study are important because both violence and heat exposure are critical health issues and will be stressed by urbanisation and climate change. The expansion of green space and/or reduction in UHI may mitigate these effects.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-023-02613-1
﻿
﻿