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Increased risk of fiasco at COP27

The latest UN climate summit was supposed to pave the way for COP27. But you have to be optimistic to see the glass as half full.
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Between the major annual COP climate conferences, two so-called SB (Subsidiary Body) meetings are held per year. They are divided into SBI, which aims to ensure that the decisions from the Paris Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol are implemented, and SBSTA, which is the link between science and policy decisions.
The 56th SB meeting, in Bonn, is based on what has been achieved at COP26 in Glasgow and laying the foundations for a successful COP27 in Sharm-el-Sheikh, November 6-18. There were a few successes to bring home, but you have to be optimistic in order to see the glass as half full.
Respect for time - in the small things
While these climate meetings usually run over time, sometimes by several days, SB56 was hammered off at the appointed time, and for once, almost everyone stuck to their appointed speaking time.
It bodes well for COP27; meetings in overtime are rarely beneficial for the most vulnerable. But in a more general sense, respect for time is poor. You could’t sense at SB56 that the world's emissions must decrease sharply and at a rapid pace, or that the need for systematic climate adaptation increases with each passing day.
Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, addresses the opening plenary of the conference. Photo: UNclimatechange
Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, addresses the opening plenary of the conference. Photo: UNclimatechange

Stricter climate goals - too little from too few
Based on the fact that the combined climate commitments in the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) are not at all sufficient to meet the 1.5-degree target, it was decided in Glasgow that for COP27 the world's countries are to sharpen their goals.
At SB56, the first technical dialogue was held under “global stocktake”, with many concrete examples of cost-effective emission reductions, and at the same time the new Australian government promised to deliver bolder climate goals, which hopefully creates momentum going forward.
But the fact that only a handful of countries have sharpened or even promised to sharpen their goals is a failure for the presidencies of Great Britain and Egypt, which both highlight this as central to COP27. Hopefully, the pressure can increase when Egypt presents its sharpened NDC within a few weeks.
Climate adaptation on the agenda - but stuck in formalities
The Paris Agreement states that emission reduction and climate adaptation are equal parts, and it characterized SB56 as many side events concretely displayed smart adaptation solutions. But the work on a global adaptation target, similar to the Paris Agreement's targets for emission reductions, did not go beyond mere formalities and it will now be tough to agree on a target at COP27.
Although each country since COP16 in 2010 is expected to have a National Adaptation Plan (NAP), where long-term adaptation needs are identified, only 35 countries have this in place.
The 56th session of the subsidiary bodies took place from 6 to 16 June 2022, at the World Convention Center Bonn, Germany. Photo: UNclimatechange
The 56th session of the subsidiary bodies took place from 6 to 16 June 2022, at the World Convention Center Bonn, Germany. Photo: UNclimatechange

Vital voluntary agreements – and increased fossil subsidies
When the formal climate work, where everyone needs to agree, is sluggish, those who want more can unite on more limited issues or in smaller groups, such as the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action, Race to Zero, Race to Resilience, Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero and others. Several of these demonstrated at SB56 that they are serious, unlike some previous initiatives.
But all progress is erased by the fact that the Glasgow Pact's demand for accelerated phasing out of inefficient subsidies for fossil fuels has become the exact opposite - country after country, including Sweden, is now stimulating fossil energy.
Climate financing is declining – and fragmenting
The industrialized countries' commitment of USD 100 billion per year in international climate finance was close to being reached, but it is now declining as many countries are prioritizing stimulating their own economies after covid and in connection to Russia's war against Ukraine.
SB56 lacked new financial commitments, and if these do not appear at COP27, work in completely different areas of climate action is threatened - developing countries believe that confidence in these types of agreements are threatened if the existing commitments are not honored. The G7 in June, the ministerial meeting Petersberg Climate Dialogue in July, the UN General Assembly in September and DR Congo's pre-COP in October will be crucial in finding new funding before COP27 in November.
UN High-Level Climate Champion Nigel Topping at the session ”Non state Action after Impact”. To the left: Saleemul Huq, Director of ICCCAD, and Ugandan climate activist and youth envoy Vanessa Nakate.
UN High-Level Climate Champion Nigel Topping at the session ”Non state Action after Impact”. To the left: Saleemul Huq, Director of ICCCAD, and Ugandan climate activist and youth envoy Vanessa Nakate.

Loss & Damage – without progress here, no progress at all?
At COP27, a “Loss & Damage Finance Facility” is expected to be established, building on the Glasgow dialogue. The Santiago Network to support those affected by long-term losses due to climate change is intended to be transformed into a permanent institution under the UNFCCC, with funding and organizational capacity.
However, at SB56 the positions were completely locked around this; 21 hours of informal deliberations provided no more than an agreement on the agenda. That Scotland, with a symbolic two million pounds, started the financing for Loss & Damage at at COP26 did not turn out to be the success factor many then hoped for. Egypt now needs to form an agreed-uopn way forward before COP27 which can otherwise be blocked by the issue.
Article 6 - unity to build upon
Let’s end this piece with a success; Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on how countries can voluntarily cooperate to achieve climate goals has been a sourdough in many previous negotiations, but not anymore.
If nothing unexpected happens, a new financial mechanism will soon be in place, corresponding to the CDM of the Kyoto Protocol, as well as an agreement on how to avoid double-counting when several countries make emission reductions together.
In summary: An increased time pressure
To conclude: The bleak outcome of SB56 has increased the need to rapidly find sufficiently good solutions so that the COP27 meeting is not blocked already in the agenda phase. The Egyptian presidency must step forward, but also the British, who after Glasgow are part of the preparations, Germany leading the G7, the United States, which under President Biden has stated that they aim for global climate leadership – much longed for – and China, whose climate ambitions have recently been less prominent.
MATTIAS GOLDMANN
Climate Doer. Elected Sweden’s most influential in sustainability issues, knighted by the French government for my climate work, named future politician of the year and winner of lobbyist of the year award. Now living in Bangkok.
  • Phillip Matavu

    93 w

    We are very enger with climate change campaigns.. We participate in COP 27 in Egypt

    • Johannes Luiga

      94 w

      Sad to read that the politicians are still slow and instead of stopping fossil subsidies are increasing them…

      • Felicia Widing

        94 w

        Great article, thanks for sharing your insights!

        • Phillip Matavu

          95 w

          Good morning we are centurion youth and women empowerment NGO based in zambia Africa.. Involved in climate change campaigns.. We would like to attend the summit COP 27.. Kindly help us with sponsor organizations if any..

          • Sarah Chabane

            95 w

            Thank you for sharing your insights, let's put pressure on our leaders and turn things around at COP27

            • Patrick Kiash

              95 w

              Great voice in this article.

              • Laura Gate

                95 w

                Great article

                • Kenyan Danttana

                  95 w

                  Very educative, informative and interesting article

                  2
                  • Marine Stephan

                    95 w

                    Very interesting article, and a good reminder that we need to put pressure on our governments to act

                    1
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