COP27: The agenda, the decisions, the expectations

November 6th to 18th, it is time for the 27th annual UN climate meeting, the COP27. Here are the most important things to keep an eye on, as compiled and analyzed by We Don't Have Time senior correspondent Mattias Goldmann with experience from the COPs of Paris, Marrakech, Durban, and many others.
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The starting point is ambiguous. On the one hand, the focus in much of the world is on restarting the economy after the pandemic and dealing with the effects of Putin's war, including efforts to reduce the price of electricity and energy even if this means importing more natural gas or using more coal. On the other hand, the massive flooding of Pakistan, hurricane Ian over the United States, and the incessant rains in Australia show that climate change is happening now and needs action now, not in a distant future.
Climate commitments. According to the Paris Agreement, every signing country must submit and periodically enhance its Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs. The first enhancement took place in connection with last year’s COP26 in Glasgow, where it was agreed upon that the combined pledges were not nearly enough to keep global warming below the two-degree Celsius threshold, let alone the higher ambition of 1.5 degrees. With this in mind, all countries are to update their NDCs already at this year’s COP27, rather than in five years. By the end of October, only 24 countries had done this, which suggests weak presidency – the British COP26 chair would not have accepted such limited compliance. Out of the 24, Climate Action Tracker classifies Australia's as the only one that actually sharpens the targets, while India, Indonesia, Brazil, the UK, and the COP27 presidency country Egypt have revised their NDCs but not tightened the targets. According to the UNFCCC's new synthesis report, GHG emissions will increase by just over 10 percent by 2030 compared to 2010, a long way from the 40 percent reduction that the IPCC deems necessary to meet the climate goals. Prospects for radical emission reductions are bleak, although there are positive signs: China has sharply reduced coal imports, South Korea is increasing its climate budget by 62 percent, Vietnam is tightening its energy plan, Indonesia is to reduce its climate impact by 29 percent by 2030 and the EU pledges a 55 percent emissions reduction to 2030, as part of the Fit For 55-package currently being negotiated.
Funding. From 2020 to 2025, international climate finance must be at least USD 100 billion per year. At COP27, there will be great dissatisfaction with the fact that this level has never been reached. Numbers are lagging so 2020 is the last year with data, but everything indicates that global climate financing declined in 2021 and 2022; fighting the pandemic, the economic recovery, and military armament were prioritized. Several countries usually use the COP venue to present their funding promises, but we cannot expect much this year, since domestic economic issues mean that this would be poorly received by voters at home.
A basic question is also how to count to 100. The OECD states that international climate finance in 2020 reached $83 billion, while Oxfam claims it is only just over a quarter of this, partly due to differing views on how to count loans at commercial or almost commercial terms.
In addition to the short-term dissatisfaction, there are long-term expectations. While the goal of USD 100 billion per year was decided behind closed doors, COP26 decided on the process to negotiate the new long-term climate finance target that will apply after 2025 – NCQS, the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance. This includes the COP26 pledge of at least USD 40bn per year in adaptation funding.
The African Negotiating Team has already requested that the long-term goal should be decided on at COP27, several technical pre-meetings have been held during the year and the first high-level political negotiation will be held on November 9th. In addition to the total amount, which dominates media reporting, issues to agree on include whether a share should be reserved for adaptation, which has so far received only 7 percent of the total, and whether the least developed countries (LDC) should have a fixed quota of the funding. Contentious issues also include what should be counted as "new and additional" in international aid; only funding classified as beyond normal may be counted towards the financial target - but is the baseline the UN's recommendation of 0.7 percent of GDP, the level of state aid that applies at a certain time or will the solution be watered down to all new investments after a certain date being by definition new and additional?
Access to funding also becomes important; The IIED concludes that only a few percent of climate finance has so far gone to indigenous peoples or minorities, urban areas have received more than rural, the poorest are underrepresented among the recipients and small projects have had difficulties in finding funding. Most agree on this problem description, but it is not a given that all recipient countries are in practice in favor of reduced control over money flows. The IPCC states the need for climate adaptation alone at USD 140-300 billion per year from 2030 and USD 500 billion annually from 2050 unless the emissions curve very quickly turns downwards.
Loss&Damage. Beyond reducing our climate impact, we must also adapt to a changing climate, and the two-year Global Goal on Adaptation process has its mid-term stocktaking at COP27, one of the EU's priorities for this COP. But there are also changes that cannot be adapted to – irreversible loss and damage. At COP19, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established to address this, in the Paris Agreement from COP21 Loss&Damage (L&D) was given a special Article (number 8), at COP25 the Santiago Network on Loss and Damage (SNLD) was agreed upon and at COP26 this was given rules and mandates. During COP26, Scotland was the first to earmark aid to L&D, at the UN General Assembly this year Secretary-General Guterres called for windfall taxes on fossil fuel companies' profits, with the money to be earmarked for Loss&Damage, and in September Denmark was the first country to disburse funds specifically for L&D (USD 10 million). The money is distributed among different existing organizations, but at COP27 there are great expectations that a special financing mechanism for Loss&Damage will be formally decided on, similar to the Adaptation Fund.
Egyptian Presidency. Each climate summit builds on the former, COP27 in particular on the Paris Agreement which is finally fully operational, and COP26, with the Glasgow Pact and wordings to "phase down" coal use, stop deforestation, reduce methane emissions and increase investment in companies with net-zero targets. Egypt, according to its climate chief negotiator Mohamed Nasr, sees itself as a bridge between north and south, which may indeed be needed in these times. Egypt's environment minister, Dr. Yasmine Fouad, states in her COP statement that Egypt has been a leader in Africa's climate transition with, among other things, the African Renewable Energy Initiative and African Adaptation Initiative. However, she will not be chairing the COP; the chair is to be Egypt’s foreign minister Sameh Shoukry (formally, this is the first decision item on the agenda). His focus is on COP’s ten thematic days (see below), on unspecified initiatives and "the indispensable role of youth organizations". Egypt's COP27 -manifesto states that the time for words is over, it is action that counts, but is far less concrete than COP26 in Glasgow. Egypt's choice of Coca-Cola as the main sponsor of COP27 is taken by some as a proof of lack of ambition.
Civil society has shown a certain skepticism about the COP27 presidency. Egypt has at least 65,000 political prisoners according to the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information and performs the third most executions in the world according to Amnesty International. Concerns also include the meeting place itself; Sharm-el-Sheikh is remote, which facilitates the control of participants and makes it difficult for many to join, especially as the accommodation is expensive and limited. COP26 had the largest participation ever, with over 40,000 registered participants, COP27 will be at about a third of this.
Article 6. Perhaps the Paris agreement's hardest nut to crack was how industrialized countries can contribute to implementing emission reductions in developing countries, according to their Nationally Determined Contributions, NDC. The climate benefit must be ensured and double counting cannot be allowed. This is dealt with through Article 6, which became operational at COP26. Switzerland is now funding extensive investments in sustainable public transport in Asia, and Sweden has concluded bilateral agreements with, among others, Nepal for "complementary measures that can be used, if necessary, to achieve our goal of zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2045."
The UNFCCC's Standing Committee on Finance states that developing countries need up to USD 5900 billion to finance their NDCs. In total, there are currently agreements for just over USD 20 billion, expect a number of agreements to be signed at the COP. This is less sensitive than new financing promises because it can be portrayed as a cost-effective way to achieve one's own climate goals, and collaborations can benefit one's own business community. Article 6 also allows separate markets for emissions trading to be linked to each other, with greater transparency and the possibility of cost-effectively reducing emissions.
The role of individual countries. Different COPs have different countries stepping up to the challenge, and – unfortunately – also those creating more headaches than others. At this year’s COP, look particularly for: 
China: The party congress just passed, Xi Jinping was reelected for a third period, and China being a leader in producing solar and wind power, we hope for more leadership on mitigation.
The US: Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act is the biggest climate plan ever, but midterm elections may limit the US appetite for climate funding and pledges.
India: At COP26, India increased its climate ambitions, to the surprise of many. What will they deliver this year?
Australia: The new government is one of very few to substantially increase its climate ambition. Will this include climate finance?
EU: The European Union is finalizing its Fit for 55 climate plan. What will it pledge?
Great Britain: Under the new prime minister Rishi Sunak, plans to accept fracking will most likely be shelved. But what will come instead?
Sweden: What will the new government mean for the country that has until now been a top contributor to the UN’s Adaptation Fund and Green Climate Fund?
UAE: The United Arab Emirates will most likely host COP28 next year, and we can expect them to launch initiatives that improve their climate standing.
Mattias Goldmann
Mattias was in Paris for the Paris Agreement, in Warsaw, Marrakech, and many of the other COP meetings, but he is not going this year, he now lives in Bangkok and wants to show that it is possible to follow the negotiations from a distance as well.
The theme days at COP27 day by day
Below in the words of the Egyptian presidency, albeit abbreviated. See the Presidency website.
9/11: Finance Day: Focus on the financial commitments of COP26, innovative financing solutions, round table of finance ministers
10/11: Science Day: 20222 harvest of IPCC reports, Stockholm+50 conclusions, UNDRR conference on disaster management,
10/11: Youth & Future Generations Day (also). To ensure that young voices are heard.
11/11: Decarbonization Day. Technologies to reduce climate impact in industrial sectors, solutions
12/11: Adaptation & Agriculture Day. The IPCC Working Group on Adaptation toAdaptations, Food Safety and Waste Reduction in the Food Chain is discussed. Loss&Damage is handled.
14/11: Gender Day. The day will highlight the role of women in climate adaptation
14/11: Water Day. Sustainable water use, droughts, cross-border water cooperation, early flood warning systems, etc.
15/11: ACE & Civil Society Day: Dialogue with civil society, with a dedicated platform to discuss challenges and solutions.
15/11: Energy Day: All parts of the energy shift, with a particular focus on just transition, green hydrogen, renewable energy, and smart grids.
16/11: Biodiversity Day: Nature and ecosystem-based solutions, how the climate affects the oceans, biodiversity, and endangered species.
17/11: Solutions Day. Focus on solutions involving multiple sectors, including greener finance, sustainable cities, and resilient infrastructure.
COP27: The agenda, the decisions, the expectations

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