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Nu’oman A. A

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To meet energy & climate pledges, solar PV & wind generation must quadruple from 2022 levels by 2030

Most growth would be in markets in early stages of deploying solar & wind, where integration is possible with gradual implementation of tested measures.

Key Findings

Timely integration is essential for widespread uptake of solar PV and wind
Realising the full potential of expanding solar PV and wind requires proactive integration strategies. Between 2018 and 2023, solar PV and wind capacity more than doubled, while their share of electricity generation almost doubled.

Governments are positioning these sources as key pillars for decarbonising the energy sector, and capacity is expected to continue expanding at speed towards 2030, driven by a supportive policy environment and recent cost reductions in solar PV and wind. The COP28 pledge to triple global renewable capacity by 2030 suggests growth could accelerate even more than anticipated, requiring intensified efforts and investments to meet this ambitious target.

Maximising the benefits from increased solar PV and wind capacity requires effective integration into power systems. While power systems have always managed demand variability, variable renewable energy (VRE) such as wind and solar PV introduces supply variability depending on the weather. This variability will require increasing the flexibility of the entire power system, by leveraging dispatchable generation, grid enhancements, increased storage and demand response. Successful integration maximises the amount of energy that can be sourced securely and affordably, minimises costly system stability measures, and reduces dependency on fossil fuels.

Delaying the implementation of measures to support integration could jeopardise up to 15% of solar PV and wind power generation in 2030 and would likely result in up to a 20% smaller reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the power sector. Should integration measures fail to be implemented in line with a scenario aligned with national climate targets, up to 2 000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of global VRE generation would be at risk by 2030, endangering achieving national energy and climate pledges. This potential loss – equivalent to the combined VRE output of China and the United States in 2023 – stems from possible increases in technical and economic curtailment, as well as potential project connection delays.

Consequently, the share of solar PV and wind in the global electricity mix in 2030 would reach 30%, lower than the 35% in the case where integration measures are implemented on time. If this decrease is compensated by increased reliance on fossil fuels, it could lead to up to a 20% smaller reduction of CO2 emissions in the power sector.

#Renewable #SolarPV #ClimateActionNow #ClimateChange #GreenEnergy #ClimateHero #CleanEnergy
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