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World Meteorological Organization

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Above-average rainfall is predicted for the Greater Horn of Africa.


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The Greater Horn of Africa is poised to receive above-average rainfall after a prolonged three-year drought. This anticipated relief brings the potential for flooding, posing risks to local communities and their livelihoods.
The October to December rainy season outlook reveals a high likelihood of wetter-than-usual conditions across most regions in the Greater Horn of Africa. Notably, southern Ethiopia, eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia face an exceptionally high probability (over 80%) of experiencing increased rainfall. However, certain areas in southwestern Uganda and southwestern South Sudan might encounter drier conditions.
Issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), a WMO Regional Climate Centre, this outlook stems from collaborative efforts involving climate scientists, researchers, governmental and non-governmental organizations, development partners, and civil society. This initiative aligns with the WMO's commitment to provide actionable climate forecasts, saving lives and livelihoods under the Early Warnings for All initiative.
Dr. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of regional climate prediction services at WMO, suggests that the shift from the devastating La Niña-associated drought to a new El Niño event could result in increased rainfall due to the typical wet conditions in East Africa. Additionally, the developing Indian Ocean Dipole might intensify the impacts of El Niño.
The period from March to May 2023 already witnessed heavy rainfall in much of the region. The anticipated above-average precipitation from October to December raises the risk of flooding. Dr. Guleid Artan, ICPAC Director, highlights the growing concern of desert locust proliferation and increased fatalities. He references the 2015/16 El Niño's destructive impact, urging governments and disaster management agencies to take necessary precautions.
October to December holds paramount importance as a rainfall season, contributing 20 to 70% of the annual total rainfall in equatorial parts of the Greater Horn of Africa. Early onset is expected in regions with elevated rainfall projections (eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and eastern Tanzania), while northern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, southern South Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania may experience average or delayed onset.

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ICPAC's seasonal forecast relies on rigorous analysis of historical data, prevailing climate signals, and advanced modeling techniques. The consolidated objective temperature forecast for October to November-December 2023, based on nine Global Producing Centres, indicates heightened chances of warmer-than-usual surface temperatures across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, particularly in specific areas.
The prior drought, stemming from poor rainfall performance during October-December 2020, led to a humanitarian catastrophe affecting millions in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. The disaster resulted in substantial livestock loss and crop destruction.





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  • We Don't Have Time

    42 w

    Dear dickson mutai Your climate love has received over 50 agrees! We have reached out to World Meteorological Organization by email and requested a response. I will keep you updated on any progress! To reach more people and increase the chance of a response, click the Share button above to share the review on your social accounts. For every new member that joins We Don't Have Time from your network, we will plant a tree and attribute it to you! /Adam, We Don't Have Time

    2
    • Kevin

      42 w

      very great news

      1
      • Ann Nyambura

        42 w

        It's a reminder that climate information is a powerful tool that, when translated into action, can safeguard lives, livelihoods, and the delicate balance of the region's ecosystems.

        2
        • Edwin wangombe

          42 w

          I hope people will be ready to harvest the rain water..

          7
          • Edwin wangombe

            42 w

            As the East African region we should brace for the rains...

            3
            • winnie nguru

              42 w

              Such is the news we long for

              10
              • Annett Michuki..

                42 w

                💚

                2

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