Global Temperature on Track to Surpass Crucial 1.5°C Limit - World Meteorological Organization

In a recent report, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a warning that the global temperature is projected to surpass a crucial threshold within the next five years. According to the WMO, there is now a 66% probability of breaching the global average temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius at least once between now and 2027, which would mark an unprecedented occurrence in human history. This forecast is coupled with a 98% likelihood of the hottest year on record being shattered during the same period.
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The commitment to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was undertaken by nearly every country in the world when they signed the landmark Paris climate agreement at the COP21 conference. The aim was to mitigate the dangerous consequences of climate change, including flooding, rising sea levels, and droughts. Although breaching the 1.5-degree mark is concerning, scientists emphasize that it does not imply a permanent surpassing of this threshold.
The target of 1.5 degrees Celsius has held significant symbolic value in international climate discussions since the Paris Agreement 2015. It has served as a focal point for efforts to combat climate change and has been regarded as a shared goal for policymakers and climate diplomats. However, for the first time, scientists predict that this threshold will likely be surpassed in the next five years.
This development poses a significant challenge for those working tirelessly to address climate change. If the international community starts to believe that the 1.5-degree target is unattainable, it could provide an opportunity for major polluters, both national and commercial, to evade their obligations and impede progress precisely when the planet can least afford it.
It is important to note that the global average temperature must exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius multiple times before it can be considered a sustained warming trend at that level. Nevertheless, this alarming projection underscores the urgency for humanity to take more substantial and faster actions to curb climate change, primarily by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The report from the WMO indicates that a new temperature record, potentially reaching 1.5 degrees Celsius, is expected due to a combination of greenhouse gas emissions and a natural weather event known as El Niño. El Niño, a warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, has global implications for rainfall and temperatures. In contrast, its counterpart, La Niña, has been cooling atmospheric temperatures for the past three years but has recently concluded its cycle.

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El Niño typically raises global temperatures the year after its development, which means scientists are predicting a rise in temperatures in 2024. Meanwhile, La Niña often brings a cooling effect, with temperatures typically increasing or decreasing by approximately three degrees. The impact of these weather phenomena takes time to manifest in different regions worldwide, leading to variations in local weather patterns.
While scientists anticipate the temperature increase in the coming years, it is crucial to intensify global efforts to address the climate crisis. According to Doug Parr, Chief Scientist at Greenpeace UK, every tenth of a degree of warming that can be avoided reduces the likelihood of extreme weather events and their associated human costs.
The WMO report serves as a wake-up call to the international community. It highlights the need to strengthen actions and policies to combat climate change effectively and mitigate its adverse effects on health, food security, water resources, and the environment. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has emphasized that each increment of warming harms both people and wildlife. Consequently, current plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must be significantly enhanced to prevent global warming from reaching catastrophic levels.
According to the Climate Action Tracker, a prominent climate consortium, the current trajectory of greenhouse gas reductions is insufficient, potentially leading to approximately 2.4 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century. More ambitious measures and international cooperation are needed to ensure a sustainable and resilient future for our planet.
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  • mercy nduta

    56 w


    • Daniel Waweru

      56 w

      This is heartbreaking

      • Annett Michuki..

        56 w

        this is worrying

        • Kevin

          56 w

          The threshold going past 1.5C is indeed very worrying

          • Tabitha Kimani

            56 w

            The situation gets scarier day by day.

            • Ann Kinuthia

              56 w

              If only we could accelerate the climate restoration actions.

              • Edwin wangombe

                56 w

                This is frightening... action needs to be taken with immediate effect

                • Lucinda Ramsay

                  56 w


                  Welcome, let's solve the climate crisis together
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