By Nick Nuttall, WDHT Environment Correspondent
Berlin, 30 August 2022--Shifting just 2-4 per cent of the global workforce and income from the old dirty economy can transform the future from a dystopian demise to one that addresses environmental, economic and social collapse from rising inequality and climate change.
In the Earth4All “Giant Leap” scenario the funding needed to deliver a positive outcome comes from taxing the richest 10 per cent in each country across the globe. Per Espen Stoknes, co-author and Director of the Centre for Sustainability at the Norwegian Business School and a member of the Board of Directors of We Don’t Have Time, described this reallocation of income from the richest 10 per cent as “peanuts”.
Sandrine Dixon-Decleve and Per Espen Stoknes launching the new Earth4ALL book
The experts said the extreme weather events being witnessed around the globe, from the massive flooding of Pakistan, grinding drought in China and Europe and current energy and the food crises triggered in part by the Ukraine War, were foretastes of the collapse facing large parts of the globe under business as usual.
Sandrine Dixson-Decleve, author and co-president of the Club of Rome which brought out its Limits to Growth 50 years ago, told the press briefing at the Bundespressekonferenz that: “ Our economic and financial systems are broken, and we are reaching dangerous levels of inequality. Do we want to create the first trillionaire or do we want to create functional, fair democratic societies? “ Ultimately, Earth for All is about building societies that value prosperity for all rather than profit for the few on a finite planet fit for the 21st century. Let’s be clear, a more equal society benefits everyone, even the very rich”, she added.
The full press conference is available here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL2TWzrvlYE
Crucially to the ‘Giant Leap” transformation will be active governments and states with the decisions and financing shifts needed unlikely to happen if left to the free market.
Jorgen Randers, one of the book’s six authors and co-author of the 1972 Limits to Growth, said under the alternative scenario—known as Too Little, Too Late—the world risked political destabilization and economic stagnation”.
“We are already sowing the seeds for regional collapse,” he added.
The “Giant Leap” scenario envisions five turnarounds that will be unprecedented and need to happen straight away.
• Ending poverty through reform of the international financial system, lifting 3-4 billion people out of poverty
• Addressing gross inequality by ensuring that the wealthiest 10% take no more than 40% of national incomes
• Empowering women to achieve full gender equity by 2050
• Transforming the food system to provide healthy diets for people and planet
• Transitioning to clean energy to reach net zero emissions by 2050
These five Earth4All turnarounds are underpinned by a system dynamics computer model that intertwines outcomes for areas such as population, poverty, economy, inequality, food and energy.
The turnarounds are backed up by 15 policy recommendations that can power them up at speed and scale.
The experts forecast that under the Giant Leap:-
• Poverty declines to approach zero around 2050, a generation earlier than Too Little, Too Late
• Commitment to progressive taxation reduces inequality so that the 10% wealthiest take no more than 40% of national incomes.
• A Citizen’s Fund further supports greater equality by distributing the wealth of the global commons to all people through a fee and dividend system, helping address inequality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and provide a safety net for the most vulnerable through economic shocks
• Social tension falls and wellbeing rises throughout the century as a result of greater income equality
• Climate change stabilises at below 2°C. Even at this level, this brings serious consequences for societies including extreme heatwaves, flooding, drought and food security, but stronger governments provide greater resilience to shocks
• The investment required to achieve the energy and food turnarounds amounts to approximately 2-4% global income this century. This will require unconventional funding for example the Covid-style quantitative easing, and reform of the IMF, World Bank and other multilateral agencies
• Population peaks well below 9 billion people by mid-century
• The Giant Leap will not happen on its own. Many major shifts in society have been catalysed by huge social movements.
The Earth4All team argue that the Great Leap is an economic and job generation opportunity.
They estimate the investment needed is about 2-4% of global income to realise, annually, this century—or about USD$2-4 trillion.
“This is not negligible, but neither is it shockingly high. It is certainly less than the financial needs to deal with the global pandemic, though that was a short-term shock, and the Giant Leap is a generational project. This estimate is in line with several other estimates (see Yuval Noah Harari’s article in Time for a summary), “they say in a statement.
Among the policy recommendations are a $1 trillion investment per year by the International Monetary Fund to stimulate green job growth in poor countries and a universal basic dividend or citizens fund that provide everyone with a fair share of the national wealth.
Meanwhile a progressive taxation of the richest in societies is required such that by 2030 the top 10 per cent take less than 40 per cent of national incomes.
The Earth4All team are planning a major outreach programme to governments and wider society beginning in September around the UN General Assembly and Climate Week NYC and will be guests on a WDHT broadcast on the 20th of September.
Johan Rockstrom, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and a co author of the new book, stressed:” “Out of hundreds of potential solutions, we have found five interconnected turnarounds that represent the simplest and most effective solutions that we must start implementing this decade to build economies operating within planetary boundaries by around 2050.”
He said it was time for national leaders to embrace the realities and adopt the measures needed, working closely with citizens.
Professor Rockstrom said there was no time like the present with many poorer countries preparing to meet in Egypt later in the year for COP27 likely to quite rightly ask rich countries just what they have been up to in terms of support and implementing climate action since COP26, the UN climate conference held in Glasgow last November.
He said there was genuine concern that the answer was not much.
For all the reports and documents underpinning the Earth4ALL report and book please go to
https://www.earth4all.life/
Earth4ALL gave the audience of We Don't Have Time a sneak preview of some of the findings in April and June 2022 : please see
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83 w
Great solutions
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87 w
Johan Rockstrom.. My dream is to meet you one day.
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87 w
Great!
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80 w
I have never encountered a case like yours. I look forward to https://drift-hunters.com receiving positive feedback.
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87 w
Fantastic article!
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87 w
Very interesting and exciting research with real new solutions, I look forward to reading the book!
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87 w
This is a very important report.