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Nick Hedley

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These countries are charting the way forward in the energy transition
South Australia: The world’s self-appointed guinea pig
Until now, the only countries that have run entirely on renewables were those with significant hydro or geothermal resources at their disposal – think Iceland, Paraguay and Norway. That’s about to change.
South Australia, for one, is showing that variable renewable energy technologies – wind & solar – are up to the task as well. Over the past three months, 77% of the state’s power has come from these sources, and that share is constantly edging higher.
On some days, wind & solar meets 95% of demand, and that tends to drive spot electricity prices into negative territory. For now, the 95% threshold is a ceiling that can’t be breached – even if there’s far more wind & solar power available, which there often is. That’s because electricity systems require ‘inertia’ and other critical grid services, which can’t be delivered by wind & solar farms.
(At the risk of oversimplifying things, inertia refers to the rotational momentum of a gas-plant turbine, which helps to keep a steady flow of electricity through the grid and maintain a constant balance between supply and demand.)
Fossil gas plants have reliably delivered these grid services in the past, but they won’t be needed for much longer.
Advanced big-battery technologies, together with machines whose only job is to spin, are gradually taking on these roles, and it’s expected that gas’ minimum share of South Australia’s power mix will soon be trimmed from 5% to 2%, before being eliminated altogether in the years ahead.
In short, the state is on the brink of ditching the old “baseload” energy playbook for good.
The rest of Australia is now, finally, racing to catch up.
The country’s energy market operator (AEMO) expects to see periods of 100% renewable power penetration in the main grid from as soon as 2025, and the government aims to reach an average share of 82% in 2030.
The isolated Western Australia grid, meanwhile, has already seen periods where rooftop solar alone accounts for 78% of power demand. For the record, that’s still not as impressive as South Australia, where rooftop solar has nearly met the state’s entire electricity needs at times.
The move to variable renewables is also keeping a lid on prices.
In Australia's main grid, the states of South Australia and Victoria have enjoyed the lowest electricity spot prices in recent months – by large margins. They also happen to have the highest share of wind & solar in the mix.
Data from the Australian Energy Market Operator shows that the average spot price in December 2022 was A$31.28 in Victoria and A$35.43 in South Australia. The states most reliant on coal – Queensland and New South Wales – had average spot prices of A$85.46 and A$82.64, respectively.
Denmark and Portugal show Europe how it’s done
In Europe, where sunlight is generally in short supply, a similar revolution is underway.
Denmark and Portugal have found success in their wind energy programmes, and consistently export surplus power to neighbouring countries.
Around 80% of Denmark’s electricity now comes from renewables – mainly wind. Portugal has been even more impressive in recent months, hitting the 98% renewables mark on many days. While wind accounts for the biggest share of the mix, solar, hydro and biomass are large contributors as well.
Hydropower and biomass plants use synchronous generators that can provide inertia services – a luxury that South Australia doesn’t have.
Why should I care?
For starters, the world is on the brink of dangerous climate change tipping points.
Since the start of the industrial revolution, we humans have warmed the planet by 1.2°C by burning fossil fuels. Scientists warn that crossing the 1.5°C threshold – we’re likely to get there in under a decade – would be catastrophic, leading to far more severe floods, droughts, storms and wildfires.
Moving away from fossil fuels is non-negotiable, and developed countries have a responsibility to lead the way.
If the climate crisis is not reason enough to prompt an accelerated shift to zero-carbon power, then simple economics should be.
Following a decade of dramatic cost declines, wind & solar are now the cheapest sources of energy in history.
While the likes of Denmark and Portugal made a large share of their renewable power investments before costs plummeted, other countries that follow in their footsteps will reap the benefits.
Fossil fuel prices are inherently volatile and susceptible to shocks like Russia’s war on Ukraine. Looking forward, a new era of energy security and price stability awaits.
And, for South Africa, which is in its 16th year of crippling rolling blackouts, wind & solar are by far the fastest and cheapest solutions to the seemingly never-ending energy crisis. A new solar farm delivers power at less than half the cost of a new coal plant, and can be built in a fraction of the time.

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