COP29 Azerbaijan
Climate warning
Climate warning
Kevin
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Amid Azerbaijan gas campaign ,COP 29 Faces biggest climate diplomacy test
Nearly 10 years ago in Paris the world agreed to take action on the climate crisis together.
The Paris Agreement’s innovative compromise was a ratcheting system in which countries could set their own targets for emissions cuts — targets they felt capable of achieving in 2015 — and then increase the rate of cuts in new national climate plans every five years.
The decisiveness of this global compromise has significantly shifted political and market expectations. The IEA has now declared “a new age of electricity” as investments in wind and solar soar.
Last year at the COP28 UN climate summit the UAE — an oil producing oligarchy — oversaw a global agreement to phase out fossil fuels and triple renewable energy. Yet global emissions are still increasing and fossil fuel companies still feel they have the social licence to weaken their climate targets.
Over the next 12 months the balance could be tipped in favour of climate safety. Governments must submit their next national climate plan updates next year. These will lay out the scale of emission cuts they believe they can deliver by 2035. These targets will determine whether or not we leave a liveable planet for us and our children.
Delivery = finance
We’re on the edge of a transformational shift in the global energy system that will significantly reduce emissions — but it requires all governments to get on board, commensurate with their economic and financial capabilities.
The last time countries delivered updates they reduced projected global temperature increases from 4C down to 2.4C. Countries also made other pledges alongside their climate plans — on methane emissions or longer term targets out to 2050 or 2060 which the IEA said could limit warming to 1.8C.
The potential is there if it can be delivered. But for delivery you need money.
At COP29 in Baku this year governments are again asked to make a bold compromise and agree to a new climate finance target. The old climate finance target for developed countries to mobilise $100bn a year in climate finance expires in 2025.
Climate finance has always been the crux of global climate action. Poorer countries who have done the least to cause the problem — and are the most exposed to climate impacts — agreed to do more to reduce emissions with support from richer countries to deliver their action. With the ask increasing every five years, the finance needs to increase too.
The purpose of a global climate finance target is to build confidence for action. Confidence that the capital will be there to roll out clean energy, switch off revenue generating industries and invest in new ones, and protect economies against worsening impacts.
Trump, tense
We cannot pretend COP29 will be immune from geopolitical tensions. 106 heads of state will touch down still reeling from the outcome of the US election. The G20 will convene in the middle of the conference taking attention away from the political question at hand. We are about to see climate diplomacy tested like never before.
The last year has not set up the finest conditions for compromise. War in the Middle East, Sudan, Ukraine. Over 60 elections have kept domestic political issues top of leaders’ minds. The rise of the far right and looming shadow of Trump have created a fever pitch of deep geopolitical tensions.
Into this throw Azerbaijan, a country recently at war with Armenia, under intense scrutiny over its human rights record as the host of COP29. 60 US Senators have said the country is unfit to host the summit.
Azerbaijan wants to host this COP to demonstrate it is a global player. It still has a chance to show it can deliver for the world — but up till now the evidence suggests it wants to deliver for its gas sector. Take the 9 ‘initiatives’ that don’t focus on fossil fuels as one example. These are not the moves of a player wanting to facilitate a transformational shift in the global energy system.
Bold diplomats, required
But all is not lost. The outlines of a finance deal are on the table. The Azerbaijan Presidency has appointed a ministerial pair to shepherd political decision making. A bold diplomatic effort from the COP29 hosts over the two weeks of the conference could deliver a finance goal that can unlock confidence for dramatically greater climate action.
A deal will require the EU and UK to step up as globally responsible leaders willing to put a significant sum of money on the table. It will depend on small islands continuing to use their moral leverage to outweigh the trouble makers who exploit divisions over finance to stall global action on fossil fuel phase out. It will depend on an openness from the African Group of Negotiators to drive for an ambitious compromise deal.
Countless studies have made it clear what is required. The key will be to keep eyes on the prize: the critical ‘new collective quantified goal’ (NCQG) on climate finance, not all the initiatives or surround sound.
Our planet depends on it.
Alex Scott is a climate diplomacy strategist working with foundations, research institutes and think tanks including Ecco, Italy’s leading climate policy think tank, to catalyse global cooperation for climate and development goals.
At COP29 climate diplomacy faces its toughest test yet
The conference’s negotiations over a new climate finance goal could lay foundations for a bold set of 2035 targets or could exacerbate…
https://medium.com/@alex_scott_climate/at-cop29-climate-diplomacy-faces-its-toughest-test-yet-f58ae5fa352a
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The promotion of natural gas by countries like Azerbaijan as a transition fuel could challenge the momentum toward green energy solutions at COP29.
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We all need to decide on what matters to us all inoder to only make right decisions regarding climate change.
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@rosebellendiritu To make the right choices, it is essential that we collectively prioritize what truly matters for the environment, health, and the well-being of all people.
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In my opinion the COPs have really failed to lead the world in achieving the goals set in Paris in 2015.
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@tabitha_kimani This lack of action and status quo makes the world lose hope and focus in the UN COP agendas
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It's about time that we stood for only what is right and focus on bringing about change to our planet and not only focus on our personal interests.
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@jane_wangui Climate change and environmental degradation affect us all, and the urgency of the crisis calls for a shift in how we approach decision-making
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It is concerning that despite an initial commitment in Paris, COP 29 now faces significant challenges with competing agendas, like Azerbaijan's gas campaign, threatening meaningful climate action.⚠⚠
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@gorffly_mokua The Paris agreement remains like most constitutions across Africa. A piece of paper highly disregarded by most nations and this has to stop!
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@gorffly_mokua This shift in priorities at COP29 not only complicates efforts to meet the Paris Agreement's targets but also highlights the ongoing tension between economic interests and the need for urgent climate action.
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A bold diplomatic effort from the COP29 hosts over the two weeks of the conference could deliver a finance goal that can unlock confidence for dramatically greater climate action.
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@kelvin_thuranira_kaberia We only have a week, let's see whether a difference will be made.
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How can we make meaningful progress on emissions while powerful interests are still lobbying for gas? This is a moment of truth for COP29, a chance to show whether we're truly committed to a fossil free future or not. It's time to put climate first, without compromise.
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@princess_nel_268 I agree, COP29 must prioritize action over influence—real progress means choosing a fossil-free future despite lobbying pressures.
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@princess_nel_268 Over 100 heads of nations and states will attend COP 29 and it will be interesting to note how the discourse will be.