DIPANJANA MAULIK's post

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DIPANJANA MAULIK

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The battle against climate change is to be fought with hope, positivity and resilience. But that does not mean we have to live in state of climate denial. IPCC special report on cryosphere earlier cautioned about the devastating impacts of temperature rise of more than 1.5 degree centigrade. IPCC 6th report also stated the same. The latest report by 60 scientists, who are working in this field are more emphatically cautioning the world about the temperature rise f more than 2 degree Centigrade in its recent report on "State of the Cryosphere Report 2023".
Antartica, the least trodden continent of the world, which provides a buttress to sea level rise has lost maximum ice in this July, it is 2.77 million square meter3 ice of ice -we may say ice area of size of Argentina was missing in Antarctica in July 2023.
1911, Amundsen with his four men team reached South Pole for the first time and in his memory the western side of Antarctica, today we see "Amundsen Sea". This report shows that rate of melting is one of the highest, in this Amundsen sea side with about 9-10 m of ice per year. This report apprehends that the threshold of WAIS (West Antarctica Ice Sheet) collapse may already have passed around 0.8 degree centigrade rise above prehistorical time.
Greenland has 3000 m thick ice in many areas but now rainfall has increased by 33% and this deluge is causing draining of ice from Greenland.
Swiss Alps lost 10% of ice in only last two years.
Latest modelling suggest even Himalaya can loose 50% of its ice.
All these melting of ice and glaciers are resulting in to rise of sea level, floods and inundation.
However, this report is also trying to find out the ways to deter and mitigate devastation. Turning down the temperature rise below 1.5 degree Centigrade is key to success. It states that "Over the past several decades, the Tibetan Plateau has warmed two times faster than the global average, increasing the vulnerability of its permafrost to thawing, sinking, and collapse. Limiting warming below 1.5°C instead of 2°C could reduce the costs of infrastructure damage from permafrost thaw in the Tibetan Plateau by $1.32 billion before the end of the century."
Expediting actions for GHG mitigation shall be beneficial for the inhabitants and for the global economy. The report states: "A key message for policy makers and coastal communities is that once ice sheet melt accelerates due to higher temperatures, it cannot be stopped or reversed for many thousands of years, even once temperatures stabilize or even decrease with so-called net-zero emissions and/ or carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Ice core and sea level records clearly show that it takes tens of thousands of years to grow an ice sheet, but two orders of magnitude less (100x less) time to shrink one. Sea level lowering from these new highs will not occur until temperatures go well below pre-industrial, initiating a slow ice sheet re-growth.23 Overshooting the Paris Agreement goals would therefore cause essentially permanent loss and damage to the Earth’s ice sheets, with widespread impacts that are not reversible on human time scales.”
It is a global challenge to improve the NDCs to meet the dire need of the day i.e. restricting the temperature rise by adopting no carbon / low carbon pathways, by deep decarbonatization. Hope and positivity are to be channelized for achieving the level of improvements in NDCs that resist the permanent loss and damages to Earth's ice sheet in reality.
The findings of these report unambiguously lead to the conclusion: "Two degree is too high" . There is no merit is negotiating with melting point of Ice. Only EAS (East Antartica Shield) contributed 40 to 80 m rise in SLR in last interglacial period (1,30,000-1,15,000 years ago). Recent ocean sediment study revealed it. In other words, lessons are well written in the ocean sediments and ocean floor. Ocean scientists are deciphering. Rest of the world is required to learn these lessons and is required to take a call.


State of the Cryosphere Report 2023.pdf

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QOqYHI0ezrmMCUrmCDV03rF-1aIYE6VB/view




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