Energy Technology Perspectives 2024

Energy Technology Perspectives 2024
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The report is about the deepening connections between energy, trade, manufacturing and climate are the focus of this latest edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), the IEA’s flagship technology publication. Building on the comprehensive assessment of clean energy technology supply chains set out in ETP-2023, this year’s edition offers cutting-edge analysis based on rich and detailed new data, granular surveys of industry, and a bottom-up approach to fresh modelling. Its significance is amplified by what has been, until now, a dearth of information in this space, and it will provide policymakers with an in-depth, quantified basis to inform their deliberations for years to come.
Three strategic areas of public policy – energy, industry and trade – are increasingly interwoven
The new energy economy that is emerging presents major opportunities for countries looking to manufacture clean technologies, their components and related materials. But it also presents challenging decisions for governments, which face tensions and trade-offs based on the industrial and trade policies they opt to pursue.  
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Governments must reconcile their commitment to well-functioning markets and cost-effective clean energy transitions, on the one hand, with the need to establish secure, resilient clean technology supply chains, on the other. This involves tough decisions around choosing which industries to support, how to structure trading relationships and where to prioritise innovation efforts.  
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The 2024 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) – which serves as the world’s clean energy technology guidebook – maps out the evolving role of manufacturing and international trade as energy transitions advance, supporting decision-making in these areas. ETP-2024 is the first analysis of its kind to do so with granular sectoral detail across supply chains, based on a unique bottom-up dataset and a quantitative assessment of countries’ industrial strategies. 
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The sizeable economic opportunities associated with manufacturing clean energy technologies are a top priority for government and industry
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The global market value for the key six mass-manufactured clean energy technologies – solar PV, wind, electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps – grew nearly fourfold between 2015 and 2023, when it surpassed USD 700 billion, or around half the value of all the natural gas produced globally that year. Growth has been driven by surging clean technology deployment, particularly for EVs, solar PV and wind. Under today’s policy settings, the market for these clean technologies is set to nearly triple by 2035 to more than USD 2 trillion. This is close to the average value of the global crude oil market in recent years.
A major wave of investment in manufacturing clean technologies is underway, with many new factories being built across the world
Global investment in clean technology manufacturing rose by 50% in 2023, reaching USD 235 billion. This increase is equal to nearly 10% of the growth in investment across the entire world economy. Four-fifths of the clean technology manufacturing investment in 2023 went to solar PV and battery manufacturing, with EV plants accounting for a further 15%.  The amount of manufacturing capacity being added has been comfortably outpacing current deployment levels. Despite some recent cancellations and postponements of solar PV and battery manufacturing projects, investment in clean technology manufacturing facilities is set to remain close to its recent record levels, at around USD 200 billion in 2024.   
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Clean technology supply chains are highly dependent on trade, and will continue to be in the future
At around USD 200 billion, the value of trade in clean technologies is nearly 30% of their global market value. The biggest element is trade in electric cars – which has doubled since 2020, reaching around one-fifth of trade in all cars in 2023 in value terms – while solar PV is in second place. Under today’s policy settings, overall clean technology trade is on track to reach USD 575 billion by 2035, around 50% more than the current value of global trade in natural gas.  
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